A Thoughtful, Analytical Approach to NGO Security

The geographic distribution analysis problem was based on real events so with the benefit of hindsight we are able to know, more or less, what happened.

As best can be determined the "blue' events were carried out by small teams of insurgents seeking to attack early morning military and police convoys that used the main road. The teams infiltrated the area for a few days at a time. Under cover of darkness and/or the early morning hustle and bustle they would plant their IEDs, detonate them, and then flee the area.

The "red" incidents were more interesting. Their pattern suggested that they were somehow distinct from the others. All took place in close proximity geographically. They also occurred on the weekend. These facts raised the suspicion that one individual, a local resident with a regular job, was responsible. Security forces eventually discovered a well equipped bomb making workshop hidden in a small outbuilding. The owner of the building disappeared shortly before his shop was raided. It appears that he had been conducting his own private mini-Jihad against international and local security forces.

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