The geographic distribution analysis problem was
based on real events so with the benefit of
hindsight we are able to know, more or less, what
As best can be determined the "blue' events were
carried out by small teams of insurgents seeking
to attack early morning military and police
convoys that used the main road. The teams
infiltrated the area for a few days at a time.
Under cover of darkness and/or the early morning
hustle and bustle they would plant their IEDs,
detonate them, and then flee the area.
The "red" incidents were more interesting. Their
pattern suggested that they were somehow distinct
from the others. All took place in close
proximity geographically. They also occurred on
the weekend. These facts raised the suspicion
that one individual, a local resident with a
regular job, was responsible. Security forces
eventually discovered a well equipped bomb making
workshop hidden in a small outbuilding. The owner
of the building disappeared shortly before his
shop was raided. It appears that he had been
conducting his own private mini-Jihad against
international and local security forces.