11/11/07 09:35 Filed in: NGO Security | Security
"The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change
" is must reading for NGOs and others doing long term security assessments. It examines the security implications of three climate change scenarios. The consequences of even the most moderate scenario are alarming: * Large-scale human migration due to resource scarcity, increased frequency of extreme weather events, and other factors, particularly in the developing countries in the earth's low latitudinal band.
* Intensifying intra- and inter-state competition for food, water, and other resources, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa.
* Increased frequency and severity of disease outbreaks.
* Heightened risk of state failure and regional conflagration.
* Significant shifts in the geostrategic roles of every major fuel type.
* Increased U.S. border stress due to the severe effects of climate change in parts of Mexico and the Caribbean.
* Increased uncertainty over how China's political leadership will respond to growing domestic and international pressure to become a "responsible stakeholder" in the global environment.
* Strain on the capacity of the United States -- and in particular the U.S. military -- to act as a "first responder" to international disasters and humanitarian crises due to their increased frequency, complexity, and danger.
* Growing demand for international institutions to play new and expanded roles in the management of refugee crises and in providing forums for the negotiation of climate agreements.
The chart on page 104 summarizes the potential impacts succinctly. It would serve as a very good starting point for any longer term planning discussions by NGOs and other stakeholders.
The report is the result of a joint Center for Strategic and International Studies
and Center for New American Security