Patronus Analytical
A Thoughtful, Analytical Approach to NGO Security
WVI Employment Fraud Warning
Vacancy - Security Officer - DRC
Kudos to WV for recognizing that learning is not limited to universities.
Vacancy - Risk Management Advisor - Sri Lanka
IFRC Releases Two New Security Manuals
Learning to Think Analytically with Video Games
I'd love to see an NGO version of something like this. It shouldn't be too hard to come up with an interesting story with a humanitarian slant that would challenge the players reasoning. Perhaps based on Darfur with the player attempting to shift through opposing claims and counter claims. Or how about a scenario based in Gaza?
Only the eight principles of intelligence analysis can save him? Oh my Gawd! I don't remember them! I'm hoping that its Richards J. Heuer's eight step Analysis of Competing Hypotheses otherwise little DIA dude is doomed.
Vacancy - Field Security Advisor - Kenya/Somalia
Vacancy - Regional Safety and Security Advisor ANSO - Afghanistan
Candidates should send a covering letter and Curriculum Vitae with the reference code “AFG 3408” to Thomas Gies at recruitment.gies[at]dwhh[dot]de .
NGO Security Scenario - Valuables Snatched
A staff member has refused to report to working claiming to have been victimized by one of the snatchers. The remaining staff of your organization have requested that you brief them on the risks. Identify the two threats in this scenario. What are the probabilities associated with each. How do explain the risks to the staff. How do you deal with the absent staff member.
Black Swan Lessons - You Can't Graph the Future
To be fair I never really knew why it made me nervous until I read “The Black Swan”. Nicholas Taleb raises several points that help explain my unease.
The first is that more information is not necessarily better. Its very easy to get bogged down in detail that has no real relevance to the issue at hand.
The second factor is what Nicholas calls the Ludic Fallacy. In brief this is the assumption that the unexpected can be predicted by extrapolating from statistics based on past observations. Nicholas argues that while this holds true for theoretical models based on games of chance it seldom holds true in the real world for the following reasons:
∗ We don’t know what we don’t know. (See the Unknown Unknown)
∗ Very small (perhaps imperceptible) changes in the variables can have a huge impact in the outcome. This is commonly referred to as the Butterfly Effect.
∗ Theories based on experience are fundamentally flawed as events that have not occurred before (or are outside living memory) cannot be accounted for.
The Washington Post graphic below, which shows the frequency and lethality of suicide attacks since 1981, illustrates the problem. If we had examined the chart in 2000 would it have led us to predict 9/11(a classic Black Swan)? If we had re-examined it in 2003 would it have led us to predict the sudden increase in the frequency of attacks in 2007? What does 2007 tell us about 2008? Looking at the trend from 1981 to 1989 how many researchers would have concluded that suicide attacks were in decline and opined that such attacks were ineffective in accomplishing the attackers goals.
Action Against Hunger Leaves Sri Lanka in Protest
I applaud ACF for making morally courageous choices under difficult circumstances.
Kidnapped UN Workers Released in Pakistani Raid
Vacancy - Safety and Security Coordinator - Sudan
Requirements:
A formal security qualification or appropriate security management training.
Practical field experience in staff safety & security management in an NGO in an area of conflict.
Previous UN and/or NGO experience.
3 to 5 years security related experience with humanitarian agencies, military or peacekeeping experience.
Previous overseas experience in conflict and/or post conflict environments.
Competency and training experience in field based communications systems such as Codan and VHF radio, Motorola and fixed and mobile satellite systems.
Instructor level experience in the training of security/safety related subjects.
Experience in management and building capacity of staff.
Computer proficiency in Word, Excel, PowerPoint and ideally in Access and other database/mapping systems.
Willingness to travel extensively in Darfur (60-70% of work time).
Proven ability and experience interacting with all parties while upholding humanitarian principles like impartiality and neutrality.
Strong interpersonal skills.
Excellent English oral and written communication skills.
Arabic skills a plus.
Black Swan Lessons - The Unknown Unknown
Does this matter to the NGO security analyst? Of course! If we fail to acknowledge the existence of silent evidence we fool ourselves into believing we know the world better than we really do. We track incidents and develop models to try and predict the future without thought to how incomplete our models are. Worse, if we are naïve enough to believe our models we unknowingly leave ourselves exposed to future unknown risks.
Lesson Learned: I don’t know as much as I think I do. No matter how much information I have the vast bulk of it, the hidden silent evidence, remains below the surface. From this morass of unseen circumstance can spring forth all manner of unanticipated surprises.
Learning Lessons from a Black Swan
I've learned (maybe I should say I'm trying to learn) a lot from Black Swan. Taleb's ideas are changing my view of the nature of knowledge, analysis, and prediction. Over the next few posts I hope to outline some of the lessons that I think NGO security officers can take from this book. It won't be easy and I'm sure that I'll get a lot wrong.
For this post however, I'll take the easy way out. This video clip is of the Taleb himself, explaining the term "Black Swan".
CARE Safety and Security Handbook Removed Update
This may also be a good time to remind everyone that this is a personal blog that represents my viewpoints and mine alone. It does NOT/NOT represent the views of any organization that I have worked for, work for, or may work for in the future.
All copyrighted material linked to remains the property of the respective copyright holders.
Avaaz
Vacancy - Close Protection Officer - Gaza
Humanitarian Mapping on Mobile Phones?
Map Maker is an Android application for creating maps in a disaster zone. It is designed to allow aid workers to quickly and easily create a map of the area they are working in. After a disaster such as a hurricane or earthquake the landscape can change so fundamentally that existing maps are rendered out of date. Knowing things like which roads are passable, where field hospitals are and suitable aircraft landing areas makes it far easier to manage an emergency.
Unfortunately the video has no audio and there are very few details. If this turns out to be more than vapourware I'd like to see some additions to support NGO security. Labels and tags for minefields, no-go areas, checkpoints, safety hazards etc. would be very nice.
If the creator of this program is out there listening I'd love to beta test this!
Afghanistan Non-Government Organization Safety Office Quarterly Data Report
Abstract:
NGOs have been directly targeted for attack on 29 occasions in the first quarter of this year with 16 of those attacks associated to Armed Opposition Groups (AOG) and 13 to criminals. Although comparable to last years figures in volume (30), the attacks of this year have resulted in many more fatalities indicating an escalation in the seriousness of attacks on NGO. This assessment is demonstrated in the fact that NGO incidents attributed to AOG have doubled from in first quarter of 2007 to 16 in the same period this year. The NGO incidents include, amongst others, seven AOG armed attacks which between them resulted in nine fatalities, nine injuries and near total destruction of two NGO compounds; seven armed abductions accounting for 12 persons kidnapped and an additional two fatalities including a female US citizen; and ten serious armed robberies accounting for one additional NGO staff injury and a long list of losses and damages to property. These figures are all higher than last year by a significant margin.
You can download the full .pdf report here.
Security Incidents Map - Nepal - March 08
KinderBerg Afghanistan Suspends Operations After Staff Kidnapped
Talks with a UN Security Guard
Darfur, Afghanistan, Beer, and Breakfast
For those who haven't seen it before Google Trends compares the relative Google search frequency of up to five user specified terms. For example if you want to compare relative search interest in various hot beverages you might enter "coffee, tea, cocoa" and press search. Google Trends returns a nice neat chart that shows how many searches were made for each term over time. It also shows a "news reference volume" chart, or in other words the frequency with which the term has shown up in the media.
The chart above was generated when I compared relative interest in Darfur, Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Congo, with Sweden as a control.
The results were pretty interesting. Searches for Iraq seem to correspond with increases in media coverage. No surprises there. The big surprise for me was Sweden. Google user are more interested in Sweden than they are in Darfur, Afghanistan, and the Congo. Talk about forgotten conflicts!
Flag B is interesting. It marks George Bush's call for more NATO troops in Afghanistan and clearly shows an increase in media coverage of Afghanistan. It even overtook coverage of Iraq for a short while. However, the general public took no notice.
The regions chart is enlightening. Americans are predominantly interested in Iraq and seem to have forgotten about Afghanistan. The Canadians, who have troops in Afghanistan but not Iraq seem equally interested in both countries. And finally, the Swedes seem to be totally obsessed with Sweden.
Not without trepidation replaced Sweden with "beer" in my search terms. I shouldn't have. I now know that your average computer using westerner is more interested in beer than they are in Iraq and Afghanistan combined. "Darfur?... never heard of it... do they have good beer?"
If you are feeling particularly masochistic try breakfast or worse boobs. For a brief while in 2004 your average Google user was more interested in what was happening in Iraq than what they were going to have for breakfast. That aberration hasn't repeated itself since. Its also interesting to note that while American's seem equally fascinated by Iraq and breasts, Canadians have a distinct preference for the later.
More on Espionage Against Pro-Tibet NGOs
If you'd like to know more about how to protect your organization's information from prying eyes be sure and check out "Digital Security and Privacy for Human Rights Defenders".
Vacancy - Security Coordinator - Afghanistan
Are aid groups doing too much newsgathering?
Are the media relying too much on aid groups and NGOs to provide pictures and video of the world's forgotten crises? Or does it make no difference where we source our material? Does the public even know the difference?
These are interesting questions but I'd rather switch it around a little. Do NGO's rely too much on mainstream media to get the word out about forgotten crises? How do governments, non-state armed actors, and others view our relationship with the media? How do these perceptions affect NGO security? How do they affect our ability to access those in need?
Appropriate Response to NGO Kidnappings and Abduction
In the past most NGO kidnappings were conducted by criminal groups seeking economic gain. However in at least the past five years we have seen a marked increase in the number of NGOs who have been kidnapped for political reasons. Confusing the issue are indications that some recent kidnappings may have been 'speculative' in nature. That is to say they were carried out by groups that were primarily criminal in nature but with the intent to sell the victim to the highest bidder.
"Experienced Advice Crucial in Response to Kidnappings" outlines the nature of the kidnapping threat and the steps NGOs should take to prepare themselves. Kidnap insurance, crisis management plans, family support, and media liaison plans are all covered in an accessible manner. If you are an NGO security officer the article might be useful for opening a discussion with senior staff. If you are a programme person you should read it and raise any questions you might have with your security officer.
The article was authored by Bob Macpherson, former director of the CARE International Safety and Security Unit, Christine Persaud, and Norman Sheehan. Between them they have a wealth of experience dealing with NGO security issues.
"...we keep them alive, until they are massacred."
Jan Egeland on the need for more than just humanitarian aid:
"...in the old days, they said, "Send the Marines." Now it's, "Send the humanitarians. They will keep them alive, and we can maybe forget about it." Well, we keep them alive, until they are massacred."
Jan on humanitarian security in a post UN Bahgdad bombing world:
"...it is a watershed when we go from just preparing ourselves to survive in crossfire with militias, with child soldiers, with drunken soldiers, with mines, and so on—we have lots of procedures to survive in such circumstances, but we do not know how to survive when a well-financed, ruthless organization plans for one month to kill you."
You can watch a video excerpt of the presentation below.
If you have good bandwidth you can watch the full video presentation...
or you can listen to the audio archive...
or if your connection is very slow take a look at the transcript.
Vacancy - Country Security Manager - Afghanistan
Send your CV to recruiting@cesvi.org and specify position number 41/2007 CSM AFGH.
Private Security Companies and Local Populations: An Exploratory Study of Afghanistan and Angola
Saving Sri Lankan Websites at Risk
Sanjana deserves a big round of applause for this initiative.
FORA.tv: Mohammed Hafez on Suicide Bombings in Iraq
Suicide attacks seem to be a keystone tactic in this new conflict. Suicide attacks have a disproportionate effect on world political developments because of their targets, their apparent unpredictability and inevitability, and most of all the incredible psychological impact. NGOs can no longer be confident that they will not be the target of such attacks. Even when humanitarian workers are not directly targeted the places they frequent inevitably will be. Restaurants, hotels, night clubs, public gatherings, government buildings, and UN complexes have all been attacked by suicide bombers in recent years. To make matters worse suicide bombings are no longer rare events outside Iraq. They have increased in frequency in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and other countries around the world.
In the two video clips below author Mohammed Hafez discusses the strategy and ideology of suicide bombing. They are well worth watching.
Question: How do INGOs, often viewed as proxies of western governments, protect themselves from suicide bombers?
NGO Security is Compiling a Security Training Directory
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This work by Kevin Toomer is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 2.5 Canada License.
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